The Hoyt Group recognized the potential for REIT industry
growth in 1992 and began a REIT analysis and investment program.
The analysis program resulted in the development of a REIT
valuation model now known as the Hoyt REIT Model. Since 1992, the
Institute has used the evolving Hoyt REIT Model as an important
tool for investing its endowment. The results of that analysis
and investment program are shown on the following chart.
The prevailing methods for the valuation of REITs focus on the
REIT as a business enterprise. The Hoyt REIT Model differs in at
least two ways. The first difference is that the Model has a
foundation of valuing the real estate portfolio of each REIT.
Additionally, the Model integrates the valuation of real estate
with a valuation of the enterprise as an on-going business with
explicit consideration of capital structure.
The Model by decomposing the cap rates explicitly considers 40
major factors in analyzing the differences in capitalization
rates between the real estate segment of the capital market and
the securities market. This provides critical information to the
valuation and risk analyses. This multidimensional analytic focus
allows the Model to distinguish among REITs that are overvalued,
appropriately valued, and undervalued by the securities markets.
It also allows investors to construct REIT portfolios diversified
by risk.
The Model considers the space market characteristics of the
properties, capital structure of the REIT, management quality,
portfolio strategy, and growth prospects. The space market
analysis makes use of millions of dollars of research at top
universities sponsored by the Hoyt Group over the course of more
than a decade. An internally consistent analytical system has
been developed to compare REITs based on their portfolio and
operating characteristics. There is also on-going work on peer
group analysis.
The Hoyt REIT Universe consists of approximately 80 equity REITs,
each with a market capitalization in excess of $150 million. The
Model focuses on core property types which are defined as
residential, office, industrial, and retail.
The Hoyt REIT Model makes use of an extensive proprietary
database developed by the Hoyt Group. The database tracks over
200 variables on each REIT. Additionally, the database contains
information on approximately 8,850 properties owned by the REITs
in the Universe.
The database is continually updated and refined and the Hoyt REIT
Model is periodically enhanced. The database and Model are linked
to ensure that all relevant variables are factored into the
investment decision-making process. The charts contained on this
page graphically represent some of the Model's output.
Investment Analysis Process
Database
- The first step in the investment analysis process is the assembly of
data into a relational database. The database is updated
regularly, with data flowing in on a daily basis. Elements are
drawn from seven major types of sources.
- Vendor Data
- Internal Analysis
- Public Documents
- Analyst Reports
- Subscription Services
- Research Services
- Industry Publications
Analysis
- The next step in the investment process is the analysis of data. The
data flow to the Hoyt REIT Model from the database and are
analyzed in five separate analytic processes:
- Valuation in the Space Market
- Cash Flow and Dividends
- Decomposition of Cap Rates
- Decomposition of REIT Value
- Assessment of Market Mispricing - Using Scatterplots
Review
- The next stage in the investment process is analyst review of the
Hoyt REIT Model output using various sources of data including:
- Vendor Data
- Internal Analysis
- Public Documents
- Analyst Reports
Decision
- The final stage in the process is analyst recommendations to the
Investment Committee. The Investment Committee, which is comprised
of Institute personnel, meets on a monthly basis to review the portfolio.