Envision a PC-based decision support system for REIT investors. Eighty REITs
with significant market caps invested in core properties are pre-analyzed for
value, risk, and REIT strategy in order to enable the decision-making investor
to design and/or implement investment strategies including applications of
modern portfolio theory.
Envision a seamless integration of disparate data to provide information for
an analytical schematic which applies both innovative and traditional real
estate analyses to the REIT portfolios which contain 6,000 REIT properties
in the database. And, envision that the rest of an institutional portfolio
held on a direct investment basis may be seamlessly integrated so that a
portfolio of direct and securitized (indirect) real estate investment may be
constructed to meet an investor's strategy.
Envision that the information - data and information include both internal
and external information selected to utilize a development planning approach,
i.e., a portfolio building program in which additions and reductions of
investment have been scheduled in expectation of external events which are
forecasted and monitored, and REIT and real estate performance, internal and
external, are monitored. The variables include, but are not limited to,
forecasts of employment growth by SMA, net space additions by property type,
absorption, vacancies (incidence and duration), rents, and tenancies. The
results of forecasted events are synthesized into a series of indices which
forecast and monitor IRAs. Deviation of performance from forecasted values are
highlighted in amber or red and a reiterative forecasting system is imbedded in
the system so that assumptions may be modified to reflect unanticipated events
and adjustments to a planned portfolio are indicated by the system based upon
predetermined criteria and such criteria adjustments as the executive d
ecision-maker chooses to make.
Translated, this means that the ON buttons produce a screen with queries such
as "do you want to search for REITs by value, risk, strategy?" "If
strategy, which elements, aside from risk, are most important - property type,
location, payout ratio, or growth mechanism?" Individual REITs may be
selected by this and/or other criteria.
REIT information may be provided in three forms: (1) sixteen-page standard
reports, (2) peer group analyses, and (3) customized formats. The customized
formats are drawn from a truncated database.
The REIT analysis is drawn from the Hoyt Model. A summary for of the Hoyt Model
is presented and three monographs are provided to summarize the relevant body
of knowledge. There are The Real Estate in REITs, REIT Investment Analyses,
and REIT Investment Strategy. All of this is in a drill down and menu format
so that the user of the "REIT Desktop Analyst" may move about
the system in a user-friendly way.
The analytical components for the mirror world structure are pre-selected from
proprietary data vendors and public information sources. Where competitive
vendors are available, the decision maker may select from among the options.
Additionally, where the analyst wishes, alternative assumptions or output
numbers may be substituted.
The structure of the analyses may be to seamlessly integrate local real estate
market forecasts for selected metro areas and to slice and dice market area
forecasts by SMAs and submarkets to implement strategies ranging from pure
plays on structural changes in economic growth to diversification strategies
by property type and local economies.
Pre-existing non-REIT portfolios may be added to the system. The market a
nalysis mirror world components may then be applied to the direct investments
as well as the securitized investment.
The monitoring system from the bottom up perspective enables the executive
to drill down to the property level, when these data are available, and
monitor rents, vacancies, expenses, and other real estate specific activity
of the portfolio. Also, to the extent that local market data are available
by property type, the drill down can monitor that activity. But, most
important, to the extent that any of the activities have been forecasted
and the system is on-line for monitoring, deviations may be flashed to the
executive.
This latest feature, coupled with a similar system for external metro area
data is especially useful for the REIT executives. Within the constraints
of public disclosure, such a system may be used as a marketing tool for
developing investor relationships between the REITs seeking capital without
heavy underwriting fees and the institutional investors, such as pension
funds, who wish to place funds in real estate but operate in a financial
paradigm.
Such a system would be a key competitive advantage for a real estate
investment advisor who wanted to have superior reporting systems and
present policy options to institutions while retaining the account as
discretionary. The key is that the lay leadership of the pension funds
need the information to understand the real estate investments,
securitized or not, but want the separation from the individual property
decisions as a protection in the capacity of a fiduciary. Such a format
could present real estate portfolios in a financial paradigm.
The major difficulty of blending the two paradigms is that the risk
measurement in finance is volatility based while in real estate the source,
or type, of risk is of greatest concern. The real estate concepts of risk
classification may be applied to non-real estate investments which would
facilitate analyses of mixed asset portfolios.
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